* Epidemiological Fact Sheet on HIV and AIDS Core data on epidemiology and response Swaziland 2008 Update; UNAIDS Regional Support Team Eastern and Southern Africa Tracking Universal Access
Epidemic Trends
Botswana has the second highest adult HIV prevalence in the world at 23.9% (2007) and women have the greatest burden of disease (especially young women who are 3 times more likely to be infected than young men).
Prevalence seems to have stablised after peaking at 27% in 2001 but this will need to be confirmed by the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS III) of 2009.
Adult HIV Prevalence Botswana 1990 to 2007 (epidemiological Fact Sheet on HIV and AIDS Core data on epidemiology and response to Botswana 2008 Update).
Modelling of incidence from sentinel surveillance and surveys suggests new infections peaked in the mid-1990s at around 33,000 per year. These have been halved since this time to 18,000, reflecting a decrease in incidence from 5% in 1995 to 2.4% in 2007.
Estimated new adult HIV infections until 2010 (HIV/AIDS in Botswana: Estimated Trends and Implications Based on Surveillance and Modelling, National AIDS Coordinating Agency July 2008)
Botswana saw decreases of more than 25% in prevalance in young people (proxy for incidence) between 2000 and 2005 so prevention has had an impact. But projections through till 2010 show that the number of new infections will stay above 15,000 per year, so it will be crucial to improve prevention to avoid increases in incidence in the future.
Botswana has seen decreases in prevalence in pregnant women in older age groups (e.g. 40-49 year olds from 30.4% in 2005 to 27.4% in 2006) but 15-19 year olds showed stable prevalence (17.8% in 2005 to 17.5% in 2006). This stable prevalence in young women could indicate new infections in young women are failing and need to be stepped up.
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